CORN The weak market action continuing for corn today as CZ traded below last week’s low. A combination of improving corn yields, or at least the perception of, along with another day of a general decline in commodity prices added to the weakness. Crude oil taking another hit to the down side as it is trading nearly $2 lower while overall losing nearly $12 in the past month. The recent good weather in the corn belt does not appear to be ending with cool temps dominating this week with several chances of rainfall. Long term maps continue to point towards normal. We will be seeing various private crop production estimates ahead of the USDA numbers which will be released on the 12th. Ideas of Brazilian corn being imported into the U.S. southeast also a huge factor with cargoes rumored to be already booked while Brazil offering corn $20-$25 cheaper than U.S. in the Oct. forward time periods. Brazil’s 2nd crop corn is very large, over 50 mmt, and likely a new record as it is being harvested at the present. Weekly export inspections came in at 36.2 mln. bu. which was below the 53 mln. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA goal of 1.850 bln. bu. Only 4 weeks left and we are not likely to get there.
BEANS It was a similar story for the soybean complex today as the recent good weather has dramatically improved the prospects of a good soybean crop. The trade is expecting crop ratings for soybeans to improve 1% on the weekly report which will be released this afternoon. Funds were sellers of all three components of the complex led by over 4000 contracts sold of soybeans alone. The outside markets, weaker crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar did not help. The recent weakness in the Brazilian Real has also encouraged some S. American selling, especially on the price rally in early July. Private crop production estimates will be released this week from here in the U.S. Weekly export inspections of 5.5 mln. bu. was below the pace needed of 7 mln. bu. to reach the USDA goal but with only 4 weeks left, not sure this was much of a factor for traders. As similar to corn, a lack of demand and competition from S. American origins will provide weakness to the flat price. The wide known fact of China’s slowing of U.S. soybean purchases for 15/16 crop year also remains a large bearish item for the trade.
USDA Export Sales Report – August 6, 2015 7:30 AM CST USDA Export Inspections Report – August 10, 2015 10:00 AM CST USDA Crop Progress Report – August 10, 2015 3:00 PM CST
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